Fluke

February 22, 2016
Mazur (Euclid in the Rainforest), professor emeritus of mathematics at Marlboro College, succinctly tackles the math behind phenomena of chance and happenstance. He begins with a rundown of generic categories of coincidences—such as lost and found objects, precisely timed encounters, dreams that come true, and gambling luck or misfortune—illustrating each with surprising examples. Over the remainder of the book Mazur analyses the likelihood of these and other moments of chance, including the birthday problem—how many people must be in a room to have a 50% chance that two share a birthday—and the monkey question, which addresses whether a monkey randomly hitting keys would type all of Shakespeare’s works if given enough time. He explains the tools required for such analyses—the theories of large numbers, weak numbers, probability, and frequency distribution—in accessible language, complemented by sophisticated equations and graphics. Mazur also explores larger issues affected by events with small probabilities, among them risk in financial markets and the application of probability theory to DNA evidence. His discussion of DNA evidence is provocative, raising questions about the process. Mazur’s thoughtful tour reveals the explanatory power of probability theory in the larger world.

February 1, 2016
A mathematics romp through amazing coincidences that proves, naturally, that they are not amazing at all. Mazur (Emeritus, Mathematics/Marlboro Coll.; Enlightening Symbols: A Short History of Mathematical Notation and Its Hidden Powers, 2014, etc.) emphasizes two axioms: first, anything that's possible is guaranteed to happen (a monkey hammering at a keyboard will eventually type a line from Shakespeare); second, math itself explains many amazing coincidences. If 23 people gather, what are the odds that two share the same birth date? The answer: better than 50/50. Mazur begins with 10 categories of coincidences that can be explained mathematically (e.g., a woman who won multimillion-dollar lottery games four times)--or not. Historians dutifully write that Abraham Lincoln dreamed of his own death, but so do we all. Everyone has nightmares. There follows 70 pages on the actual mathematics of these experiences, explained clearly by the author. Science writers traditionally assure readers that no equations will disturb their text, but Mazur does not go along with that approach. While he does not go beyond high school algebra, readers who pay attention will learn the basics of probability, bell curves, standard deviations, hidden variables, and how to calculate the odds of a monkey typing Shakespeare. They are more likely to enjoy discussions of the reality behind his 10 categories and then scratch their heads over absorbing if only distantly relevant chapters that cast a critical eye on DNA evidence ("the general public mistakenly presumes that DNA evidence is the absolute proof of guilt or innocence, at least if it is not compromised by contamination"), extrasensory perception, stock market manipulations, and scientific breakthroughs. The best update of Darrell Huff's classic How to Lie with Statistics (1954) remains Gary Smith's Standard Deviations (2014), but readers willing to work will find that Mazur acquits himself quite well.

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