The Next Hundred Million

November 9, 2009
Kotkin (The City
) offers a well-researched—and very sunny—forecast for the American economy, arguing that despite its daunting current difficulties, the U.S. will “emerge by midcentury as the most affluent, culturally rich, and successful nation in human history.” Nourished by mass immigration and American society’s “proven adaptability,” the country will reign supreme over an “industrialized world beset by old age, bitter ethnic conflicts, and erratically functioning economic institutions.” Although decreasing social mobility will present a challenge, demographic resources will give the U.S. an edge over its European rivals, which will be constrained by shrinking work forces and rapidly proliferating social welfare commitments. Largely concerned with migration patterns within the U.S., the book also offers a nonpartisan view of America’s strengths, identifying both pro-immigration and strongly capitalist policies as sources of its continued prosperity. However, Kotkin tends to gloss over the looming and incontrovertible challenges facing the country and devotes limited space to the long-term consequences posed by the current recession, the rise of India and China, and the resulting competition over diminishing energy resources. Nevertheless, his confidence is well-supported and is a reassuring balm amid the political and economic turmoil of the moment.

December 15, 2009
Think you have trouble finding a parking space today? Wait until 2050, when the American population will have grown by another 100 million.

According to Forbes columnist Kotkin (The City: A Global History, 2005, etc.), that's good news. Indeed, he writes,"because of America's unique demographic trajectory among advanced countries, it should emerge by midcentury as the most affluent, culturally rich, and successful nation in human history." There are several arguments and bits of data bundled in that opener. As the author notes, most of the world's leading nations, particularly in Europe, are rapidly losing population and with it the prospect of future power and wealth. Russia's population, for example, could be one-third the size of the United States by 2050, and 30 percent of China's population will be over the age of 60 by then. Meanwhile, our future cultural richness will come from the fact that the greatest growth will be among groups that are now ethnic minorities, especially Hispanics and Asians."Demographically at least," writes Kotkin,"America may have more in common with Third World countries with the developed world." The cultural shifts are likely to be dislocating to some, though the relentlessly optimistic author believes that the future will see a mix of traditional values and new ones leading to greater social tolerance. Whereas other nations are likely to decline precipitously, he adds, America will truly be in a position of economic dominance—though, admittedly, output might be high because no one will be able to afford to retire, given current trends. Less rosy is Kotkin's picture of a future America in which the leading cultural centers are likely to be—and elsewhere, to look like—places such as Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Miami,"multipolar, auto-dependent, and geographically vast." So much for reversing climate change, even if the author does see the rise of"greenurbia" in years to come.

A fascinating glimpse into a crystal ball, rich in implications that are alternately disturbing and exhilarating.

(COPYRIGHT (2009) KIRKUS REVIEWS/NIELSEN BUSINESS MEDIA, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.)

March 1, 2010
In the grip of recession, with the economic news ranging from bad to dire, Kotkin's ("The City") prediction that the United States will "emerge by mid-century as the most affluent, culturally rich, and successful nation in human history" may come as a welcome surprise. Kotkin identifies two demographic trendsa growing birthrate and increased immigrationas engines that will drive this new prosperity. He anticipates that the "next hundred million" will live not in dense, "superstar" cities (e.g., New York, Chicago) but in suburbs and sprawling cities like Phoenix and Los Angeles, with urban planning taking a back seat to the force of the market, which will, in some unspecified way, be able to mitigate the effect on the environment of all those cars on the road. Kotkin's research is prodigious and at times quite convincing. But he deploys it so selectively, while failing to offer more substantive comment on some of the unquestionable challenges we'll face in the coming decades, that his relentlessly optimistic future vision becomes somewhat hard to swallow. VERDICT A refreshing change of pace, but the tone is so breathless and the future portrayed as so sweet that this book must be taken with a grain of salt. [See Prepub Alert, "LJ" 10/15/09.]Rachel Bridgewater, Reed Coll. Lib., Portland, OR

Copyright 2010 Library Journal, LLC Used with permission.

February 1, 2010
Assuming that America will increase to 400 million people in the next 40 years, Kotkin divines demographic consequences in this catalog of predictions. Optimistic in contrast to elite opinions on the Left and the Right that see America in decline, Kotkins views are not certitudes: the author regularly cautions that if certain things are not done, such as ensuring an economic environment of upward mobility, his vision of the future may not come to pass. Caveats dealt with, Kotkin essentially asks where the extra 100 million will live. Because some of them are already herethose born or who have immigrated since the early 1980sKotkin tends to extrapolate present trends. After a career-starting stint in the big city, family-raising aspirations send people to the suburbs and, increasingly in the Internet-connected world, to small towns and rural areas. Describing specific locales, Kotkin anticipates a revitalization of older suburbs and even a repopulation of the Great Plains. As sociological futurists engage with Kotkins outlook, the opportunity for critics lies in the authors lesser attention to the environmental and political effects of population growth.(Reprinted with permission of Booklist, copyright 2010, American Library Association.)