Risk Intelligence

Starred review from January 9, 2012
A lecturer in behavioral science at University College Cork School of Medicine in Ireland, Evans (Placebo: The Belief Effect) defines risk intelligence as “the ability to estimate probabilities accurately,” such as the probability of a car crash or the truth of a rumor. Evans explores everything from climate change predictions to Homeland Security’s color-coded system that supposedly rated the risk of terrorist attacks. Evans outlines why many are so bad at estimating probabilities—with sometimes devastating consequences, such as in the financial crisis and 9/11—and how one can become better at it, since it’s a vital skill for gaining success in life. With an arsenal of studies and statistics, he covers fascinating topics, including battlefield strategies, overconfidence, lies, and the tendency to follow the crowd, despite obvious evidence they are wrong. Much is contrary to accepted beliefs, for instance, “the mind-reading illusion”: research shows we don’t read other people as well as we think we do. He concludes with the results of his online risk intelligence test. After studying the techniques detailed here, readers of this valuable manual will be better able to “gauge the limits of own knowledge” and increase their ability to make fact-based decisions. Agent: P.J. Mark, Janklow & Nesbit.