The Ingenuity Gap

October 2, 2000
In a virtual tour of the state of ingenuity today, Homer-Dixon reminds us that "the greater complexity, unpredictability and pace of our world, and our rising demands on the human-made and natural systems around us" make it more critical than ever that smart solutions to technical and social problems be ready at a moment's notice. If economists like Harold Barnett and Chandler Morse rely on market forces to keep the supply of ingenuity in line with demand, Homer-Dixon, a professor of political science at the University of Toronto, regards such an attitude as dangerously optimistic. Recounting the details and timing of crises like the October 1987 stock market crash and the July 1989 crash of United Flight 232 in which 111 passengers died but 185 miraculously survived, he argues that only a unique confluence of people and experience lets the supply of ingenuity equal the demand to avert total disaster in each case. Given persistent imperfections in markets, breakdowns in feedback loops and the weakening of social structures that have traditionally facilitated ingenuity, he is dubious that such extraordinary conditions can be met time and again. To scare us into action, he provides hair-raising examples of the effects of collapsing systems in Third World countries he has visited and studied. Marshaling a vast amount of information from such disparate fields as economics, ecology and biology, Homer-Dixon makes his most compelling case arguing for increased efforts to nurture social as well as technical ingenuity.

October 1, 2000
In search of an understanding of how humankind is responding to increasingly complex social, technological, and environmental problems--from AIDS to global warming--Homer-Dixon (political science, Univ. of Toronto; director, Peace and Conflict Program) visited a wide variety of cultural and political settings. He supplements his observations and research with interviews with engineers, ecologists, physical, social, and political scientists, among others. In each venue, Homer-Dixon assesses the balance between the need for problem-solving ingenuity and its availability. He raises the question of whether the speed and direction of changes is creating situations beyond our intelligence and imagination to control, even if we can agree on the goals, the path, and the beneficiaries of corrective solutions. But while he is cautiously optimistic that we can reverse present trends, he emphasizes that we must first change our values and self-perceptions and thereby "achieve a (more) measured awareness of our place in the universe." Clearly presented, this thoughtful and thought-provoking work is highly recommended for academics and the general public.--Suzanne W. Wood, SUNY Coll. of Technology at Alfred

Copyright 2000 Library Journal, LLC Used with permission.

October 1, 2000
The ingenuity gap is the difference between the amount of creativity and intelligence needed to overcome today's problems and the amount that humankind is capable of supplying. Is there such a gap, asks Homer-Dixon? In " The Ingenuity Gap," the author voices the suspicion that technological progress has actually made everyday life more complex. As a result of this complexity, society faces new and perhaps more difficult problems than ever before. Homer-Dixon examines such trends as our growing dependence on technology and increasingly specialized fields of expertise. With extensive research and expert interviews, he addresses issues pertaining to the economy, the environment, government, and social institutions. He illustrates cases where such systems and our interactions with them have become so complex that even the "experts" cannot fully comprehend them. Is the world we are creating too complex for us to manage it? Can our problem-solving creativity keep pace with the new problems arising from Progress? Homer-Dixon challenges our faith and raises intriguing questions in this thought-provoking tome.(Reprinted with permission of Booklist, copyright 2000, American Library Association.)