The Gray Rhino

February 1, 2016
Wucker (Lockout) introduces a variation on risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s concept of the black swan, a term for outlier events that are hard to anticipate and harder to plan for. This book looks, instead, at events that should have been predicted, like the 2008 financial crisis. Enter the gray rhino, “a highly probable, high-impact threat: something we ought to see coming.” Wucker believes that the problem is systemic: the political and financial world rewards short-term thinking, and it’s difficult for institutions to pivot quickly when necessary. With so many recent examples of failures to respond to obvious threats, we should have a better handle on why we miss them, but cognitive biases make this difficult. Wucker explores the denial that keeps us from seeing threats, the panic that occurs when we don’t make decisions in time, and ways to implement solutions and take reparative action “after the trampling.” This helpful guide to getting out of your own way long enough to see the rhino charging over the hill will be useful reading for managers, entrepreneurs, and risk takers of all stripes. Agent: Andre Stuart, Stuart Agency.

February 15, 2016
An analysis of "highly obvious but ignored threats"--from failing infrastructure to financial crises to climate change--and what can be done to prevent disastrous outcomes. "Of all the tricks that human nature plays on us, inertia is one of the most powerful forces preventing us from getting out of the way of a known challenge," writes policy analyst Wucker (Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right, 2006, etc.), a former vice president at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Drawing on interviews and research in behavioral economics, she details the "willful collective failure" to act on warning signs that preceded the 2008 financial crisis, the Enron debacle, the collapse of a Minneapolis bridge in 2007, and other events. She calls these highly probable, high-impact threats "Gray Rhinos," as opposed to the rare, unpredictable catastrophes that author Nassim Nicholas Taleb dubbed "Black Swans" in his popular 2007 book, The Black Swan. Throughout her book, Wucker describes the many reasons people fail to respond to obvious dangers--e.g., denial, avoidance, procrastination, and calculated self-interest. Many reasons are emotional or irrational. Others are encouraged by the imperatives of political and financial systems, which seek short-term results or profits rather than investing in long-term solutions. Wucker makes a strong case, but she is often long-winded and perhaps overly optimistic that an awareness of the quirks of human nature shaping our decisions can spur decision-makers to respond effectively to obvious threats. However, she provides solid examples of government action on such gray rhinos as water shortages and the need to plan for future disasters in the wake of floods. She urges readers to avoid the panic stage of an impending threat by "quickly moving from recognition to diagnosis to action." A valuable guide for individuals and policymakers who want to act when they see the lights of an oncoming train.

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