The Oil Factor

January 19, 2004
Stephen Leeb, editor of the "Complete Investor" newsletter, believes the U.S. economy is headed for a significant fall because of a severe shortage of oil, which has been inextricably tied to the economy for the past 30 years. Leeb, author of several books including Getting In on the Ground Floor
(also co-written with wife Donna), believes the country must become less dependent on oil imports over the long term. Meanwhile, though, Leeb advises individuals to choose investments based on the longstanding relationship between oil prices and the stock market. He has a number of solid observations based on an examination of the past 30 years of stock performance and oil prices: "Since 1973, the economy and stock market have danced to oil's tune. Sharp rises in oil prices have led to recession/stagflation and plummeting stocks, while declining prices or prices that are just mildly uptrended have led to good times." Leeb provides a great deal of historic context and analyzes industries, selected companies, and other investment choices such as bonds and Treasury notes. Leeb's thesis is well researched, and the book offers a solid, concise overview of the economy and stock trends. Still, given the uncertainty of the stock market—and the lack of job security—readers should consider Leeb's strategies carefully before overhauling their portfolios.

February 1, 2004
Stephen Leeb is president of Leeb Capital Management and editor of "The Complete Investor," a monthly financial newsletter. An independent thinker, he has collaborated with his wife, Donna Leeb, on four previous books that often defied the conventional wisdom of Wall Street. Here they forecast an energy crisis caused by U.S. dependence on foreign oil and discuss possible effects of such a crisis on the economy and the stock market. When the world's demand for oil overtakes its supply, oil prices will inevitably soar, and this, say the authors, does not bode well for typical indexed stock funds. Watching the "Oil Index," however, offers help in deciding whether to stay in the market, and natural gas stocks can provide balance to every investor's core holdings. Research on alternatives to fossil fuels shows some promise, the Leebs say, but has lagged behind the demand for new technology. They also discuss straight energy plays, gold, alternative energy stocks, and deflation hedges, all part of a diverse strategy to stay ahead of the game during the volatile years ahead. (Reprinted with permission of Booklist, copyright 2004, American Library Association.)