The Nuclear Tipping Point

Today many of the building blocks of a nuclear arsenal scientific and
engineering expertise, precision machine tools, software, design
information are more readily available than ever before. The nuclear
pretensions of so-called rogue states and terrorist organizations are
much discussed. But how firm is the resolve of those countries that
historically have chosen to forswear nuclear weapons? A combination of
changes in the international environment could set off a domino effect,
with countries scrambling to develop nuclear weapons so as not to be
left behind or to develop nuclear hedge capacities that would
allow them to build nuclear arsenals relatively quickly, if necessary.

The Nuclear Tipping Point examines the factors, both domestic and
transnational, that shape nuclear policy. The authors, distinguished
scholars and foreign policy practitioners with extensive government
experience, develop a framework for understanding why certain countries
may originally have decided to renounce nuclear weapons and pinpoint
some more recent country-specific factors that could give them cause to
reconsider. Case studies of eight long-term stalwarts of the
nonproliferation regime Egypt, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South
Korea, Syria, Turkey, and Taiwan flesh out this framework and show how
even these countries might be pushed over the edge of a nuclear tipping
point.

The authors offer prescriptions that would both prevent such countries
from reconsidering their nuclear option and avert proliferation by
others. The stakes are enormous and success is far from assured. To keep
the tipping point beyond reach, the authors argue, the international
community will have to act with unity, imagination, and strength, and
Washington's leadership will be essential.

Contributors include Leon Feurth, George Washington University; Ellen
Laipson, Stimson Center; Thomas W. Lippman, Middle East Institute;
Jenifer Mackby, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Derek J.
Mitchell, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Jonathan D.
Pollack, U.S. Naval War College; Walter B. Slocombe, Caplin and
Drysdale; and Tsuyoshi Sunohara, Center for Strategic and International
Studies.

Author Description:

Kurt M. Campbell is senior vice president and director of international
security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and
former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and the Pacific.



Robert J. Einhorn is senior adviser in the international security
program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former
assistant secretary for noproliferation at the Department of State.



Mitchell Reiss was director of the Reves Center for International
Studies at the College of William and Mary.